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Prediction for CME (2023-02-25T19:38:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-02-25T19:38Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/23942/-1
CME Note: Bright partial halo CME with a bulk portion predominantly to the West in STEREO A COR2 imagery. No SOHO imagery available during initial entry. Source is a filament eruption and simultaneous M6.3 flare from AR13229. An EUV wave is best seen in GOES/SUVI 284 starting at 2023-02-25T18:54Z. A post-eruptive arcade is present in most SDO/AIA wavelengths following the eruption. Likely CME arrival (shock and sheath) are seen at 2023-02-27T10:15Z, as jump in magnetic field to over 20 nT, accompanied by sharp drop in density and temperature. This signature is being discussed with LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-02-27T10:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-02-28T04:44Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-02-25 23:23
 - Time at C2: 2023-02-25 19:38
 - Radial speed: 920.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 58 deg
 - Eruption location: N10W48
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 682.00 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-02-28 04:44 (i.e. predicted transit time: 57.10 hours)
Lead Time: 35.83 hour(s)
Difference: -18.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-02-25T22:25Z
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